The Trump administration’s higher education policies, particularly those affecting international students, the overall structure of federal education funding, the additional endowment tax, and the cuts to Medicaid resonate through various layers of the municipal bond market. Understanding these impacts is crucial for bondholders, invested in municipal university and hospital bonds.

Under the Trump administration, there was a significant focus on deregulating higher education, which included efforts to simplify federal student loan programs and repeal certain borrower protections. Additionally, international student policies became stricter, with tighter visa regulations and more stringent guidance surrounding eligibility for work opportunities after graduation.

Many public and private universities rely heavily on tuition from international students. A decrease in international enrollment, driven by stricter visa regulations and unfavorable policies, may harm universities’ financial health. This reduction in revenue can negatively affect the institutions’ ability to service existing debt, thus impacting bondholders. For bonds linked to university financing, potential credit downgrades could result from deficits in expected tuition revenue.

As universities adapt to the decline in international students, they may revise their educational programs or scale back operations. Institutions may prioritize maintaining existing facilities over new development, which can affect bond demand and investment timelines for these municipalities that rely on funding for infrastructure improvements.

Additionally, the new tax bill, signed into law on 7/4, increases the tax on university endowment funds. The current 1.4% excise tax rate on investment income for certain universities would increase to a multi-tiered structure of up to 8% based on a school’s student-adjusted endowment or assets per student. Schools with fewer than 3000 students would be exempt. This tax could lead to substantial revenue shortfalls and cause some schools to raise tuition prices, cut financial aid, delay construction projects, freeze hiring, or all the above.

For example, according to the Houston Chronicle, “Rice University’s endowment covers more than 40% of the university’s budget, a 4% tax on its annual endowment could cost the university $10.1 million, more than double what it already pays.” These additional costs can do significant damage to all the areas mentioned previously for many universities across the country.

Also, bond ratings associated with educational institutions could be affected by these policy changes. Lower enrollment figures and increased financial strain may lead to adverse credit ratings for universities, which in turn may affect bond pricing and yield spreads. For bondholders, this scenario represents an increased risk profile and potential loss of investment value. The uncertain environment surrounding higher education policies can lead to increased volatility in this sector.

The policies of the Trump administration have several adverse implications for municipal hospital debt, affecting both funding and financial stability.

Medicaid Expansion: One of the most significant ways the Trump administration influences municipal hospitals is through its approach to Medicaid expansion. While some states expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), others chose not to. Hospitals in states that did not expand Medicaid faced increased financial strain due to higher rates of uninsured patients, impacting their ability to manage debt. While not all hospitals will be affected equally, the financial cuts will be most keenly felt in rural areas, where many hospitals primarily cater to lower-income patients who rely on Medicaid.

Funding Cuts: The approved budget includes cuts to federal healthcare programs. Reductions in funding for programs like Medicaid or federal grants could strain municipal hospitals’ finances, increase their reliance on debt, and limit their ability to invest in necessary upgrades or community health initiatives. These changes are particularly detrimental to rural hospitals that rely on Medicaid payments. On the positive side, the bill established a $50 billion fund, specifically for these rural facilities, to help stabilize their finances and improve the outlook for their bonds.

Like the higher education issue, these changes could also affect hospital bonds’ credit ratings. Changes in a hospital’s financial health could affect its ability to service its debt.

The administration’s changes to higher education policies and Medicaid have introduced complexities that bondholders must navigate. A potential decline in revenue for universities and hospitals can adversely affect their financial stability and impact bond returns. The interplay between federal policies and the economic circumstances of municipal hospitals and universities creates a complex environment that requires careful navigation to manage debt effectively.

By understanding these dynamics and taking proactive measures, bondholders can better position themselves to manage risks and optimize their investment strategies in a changing landscape.

To mitigate risks, bond buyers might consider diversifying their portfolios by investing in bonds from various sectors. In addition, when it comes to buying bonds, the guidance of an experienced advisor is invaluable. Our team at The DRL Group, with over three decades of experience in bond trading, has successfully navigated clients through extraordinary market circumstances. Our seasoned professionals and unparalleled expertise are a crucial asset for investors seeking guidance in these volatile times. Contact us today to leverage our experience to your advantage.

To continue to receive timely information on bond markets, Sign up here for the free DRL Muni Market Insider.